Wind power is still one step away from reaching the top

Abstract from Economic Daily

    Recently, the 16 MW offshore wind turbine jointly developed by the Three Gorges Group and Goldwind Technology officially rolled off the production line.    This  is currently the world''s largest single capacity, the largest impeller diameter of the wind turbine, marking a historic leap in China''s wind power equipment industry from "following" to "leading".   Although both belong to the "national business card", compared with photovoltaic, China''s wind power equipment has not yet formed absolute strength in the world.    Under the "double carbon" goal, only by continuously improving the core competitiveness and practicing "a foot in front of the door" can the wind power industry turn its advantages into victory.

    The impression that China is the world''s first wind power has long been deeply rooted in people''s hearts. Here we need to distinguish a concept, the installed capacity first does not mean the wind power industry competitiveness first. Only from the quantity point of view, China''s wind power installed capacity in 2012 will surpass the United States to become the world''s first, and dominate the list so far, while China''s wind power machine equipment output also accounts for more than half of the world. However, unlike the overwhelming advantage of the photovoltaic industry in the global market, China''s leading wind power in volume basically comes from the domestic market, the overseas market share is less than 10%, and the global market expansion ability is poor compared with Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, GE and other European big factories. In key areas such as basic research and development of wind power technology and fan equipment components, there is also a lack of core patents and manufacturing capabilities, such as main shaft bearings and key matrix materials for wind power blades are still dependent on imports.

    The stock market is the "barometer" of the economy and industry, and the lack of global competitiveness of China''s wind power is further reflected in the capital market. For A long time in the A-share market, the average valuation of listed companies in wind power is much lower than that of photovoltaic companies, and so far, a wind power equipment company with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan has not been born. In the view of professional investors, compared with the high growth, strong independence and fast innovation of photovoltaic enterprises, the current international competitiveness of wind power enterprises is poor, the core components rely on overseas, the vitality of technological innovation is insufficient, the business model is single, the capital activity is low, and the lack of attractive growth story. From the perspective of wind power components, in addition to the blades, the main materials of the remaining links are based on steel, so that investors nicknamed wind power companies "blacksmithing". These are the reasons why the market gives low valuations to wind power companies.

    Objectively speaking, the wind power industry wants to catch up with the first-mover advantage of European counterparts, the degree of difficulty is much greater than photovoltaic. In his book The Innovator''s Dilemma, Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen divides technological progress into two categories: continuous technology and disruptive technology.Wind power is to convert wind energy into mechanical energy, and then convert mechanical energy into electrical energy, this process determines that wind power efficiency and cost reduction depends more on making the unit bigger and the blade longer, which belong to the continuity technology, and wind power components based on casting technology are more difficult to be subverted, and the wind power industry chain structure is more stable. It''s hard to kill a new player with a lead from halfway. The principle of photovoltaic power generation is the semiconductor photoelectric effect, and its key components are solar cells, and different battery technologies vary greatly in conversion efficiency. Photovoltaic companies that have mastered destructive technologies are often able to change lanes and overtake others. At the same time, the speed and amplitude of cost reduction of solar power is much higher than that of wind power.

    The realization of the "double carbon" goal and the sustainable development of mankind cannot be separated from wind power technology, and because innovation is not easy, a strong wind power industry needs to focus on innovation. From the weak competition in the international market and the performance of the "price war" in the depression period of the domestic market, China''s wind power enterprises have not yet formed a technical advantage oriented cost advantage, and the sustainable development of the wind power industry in the era of affordable Internet access must urge the endogenous innovation power of the industry.

    The characteristics of the wind power industry determine that the industry breakthrough must rely on the collaborative innovation of the entire industrial chain. The success of the research and development of 16 MW offshore wind turbines reveals that at this stage, we should give full play to the "chain length" role of energy central enterprises, actively explore a new model of wind power integration development, make full use of the unique advantages of central enterprises in technology, investment capacity and resource integration, build a good collaborative development platform, effectively aggregate upstream and downstream enterprises in the wind power industry chain, and build wind power equipment industry clusters. To achieve a virtuous cycle of resource development driving industrial development and industrial development promoting resource development, leading to promote the integrated high-quality development of China''s wind power industry chain.

    In addition to technological innovation, wind power enterprises should also jump out of path dependence and look at market competition with a more open attitude. All along, the application scenario of wind power terminal is relatively single, and the application scenario of photovoltaic is deep into the "thousands of households". From the development experience of European countries, wind power can also lock part of the market in the field of household use. For example, this year and the humble domestic small fan is shining in Europe, although the technical content is not as good as the big fan, but the small fan is a test of the enterprise''s business model innovation ability, with the implementation of China''s "thousands of villages to control the wind action", wind power application space is unlimited.

    As a major renewable energy country, China''s "arm wrestling" with overseas wind power giants is the only way to grow. Wind power enterprises should dare to go out, be good at going out, and prove their strength in the international market with higher gold content, in order to achieve the transformation of wind power industry from "big" to "strong".

Win Power forward the news for information,not representing approval for some certain opinions in the passage.