Two Critical Points for Replacing Fossil Energy with Wind Power and Photovoltaics

Abstract from New energy Network

    Whether wind power and photovoltaic can ultimately replace coal-fired and natural gas power generation depends on two key nodes, or critical points:

1）New vs.New

    The first critical point is that without subsidies, the Cost of electricity by source of new wind power and photovoltaic power stations can compete with that of new coal power and natural gas power stations. Under current market conditions, many countries are approaching this critical point. In Germany, the Cost of electricity by source of new onshore wind power is lower than that of coal power and natural gas power generation; In China, the cost of coal-fired power is still the lowest among all types of power sources, but it is expected that the cost of onshore wind power in 2019 will be lower than that of coal-fired power, and the cost of photovoltaic power in 2021 will also be lower than that of coal-fired power; In the United States, natural gas power generation has the lowest cost among various power sources, but it is expected that the costs of wind power and photovoltaic power will be lower than natural gas power generation from 2022 to 2023; In India, it is expected that new photovoltaics will be lower than coal-fired power nationwide starting from 2020.

2）New vs.Old

    The second critical point is that the power generation cost of newly built wind power and photovoltaic power plants is lower than the operating cost of existing coal and natural gas power plants. That tipping point will come sooner than people think. In China, photovoltaic costs are expected to be lower than existing coal power operating costs in 2030; In the United States, the cost of PV will be lower than the operating cost of existing natural gas power plants from 2027. In Germany, the cost of onshore wind power and photovoltaic will be lower than the operating cost of coal and natural gas power plants between 2027 and 2030.

    According to BNEF''s forecast, solar PV will become one of the leading energy sources in 2040, accounting for 32% of the world''s total installed power generation; Wind power 14%, hydropower 12%, coal 14%, natural gas 13%, nuclear 3%.

Win Power forward the news for information,not representing approval for some certain opinions in the passage.